World merchandise trade grew 4.6% in 2025, beating the 2.4% forecast, as demand for AI-related goods offset tariff uncertainty and policy risks. Asia drove 71% of that growth, supported by resilient emerging-market demand, expansionary policies, and North American frontloading ahead of US “reciprocal” tariffs. Pre-conflict projections had 2026 merchandise trade growth slowing to 1.9% and global GDP at 2.8%. However, the Middle East conflict has curtailed Persian Gulf oil shipments, which account for 20% of global liquid petroleum use, pushing crude to ∼$90/barrel and LNG to ∼$16/MMBtu. If prices stay high, merchandise trade growth may drop to 1.4% and GDP to 2.5% in 2026.