Report by Muhammad Hammad

The World in 2025

The current geopolitical climate, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and with wars raging in the Middle East and in Sudan, makes it nearly impossible not to think about such events when assessing the one global risk expected to present a material crisis in 2025: close to one-quarter of survey respondents (23%) selected State-based armed conflict (proxy wars, civil wars, coups, terrorism, etc.) as the top risk for 2025. This risk has climbed from #8 to #1 in the rankings compared to last year. Geopolitical tensions are also associated with the rising risk of Geo-economics confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening).

The Path to 2027

The global outlook for 2027 is one of increased cynicism among survey respondents, with a high proportion of respondents to the GRPS 2024-25 anticipating turbulence (31%), a four percentage-point increase since last year’s edition. There is also a two-percentage-point year-on-year increase to 5% in the number of respondents who are anticipating a stormy outlook – the most alarming of the five categories respondents were asked to select from – over the next two years.

Geopolitical Recession

State-based armed conflict (proxy wars, civil wars, coups, terrorism, etc.) was highlighted as by far the greatest risk for 2025 among the 33 risks ranked in the GRPS, with 23% of respondents anticipating a material global crisis.

GRPS respondents cite Geo-economics confrontation as well as the technology-related concerns of Cyber espionage and warfare and Misinformation and disinformation among the risks most closely linked to State-based armed conflict. Concern about this risk among respondents remains alarming on a two-year horizon, with State-based armed conflict ranked #3, increasing two positions from last year’s risk ranking.

Supercharged Economic Tensions

Global trade relations are tense and there is a risk of unpredictable and potentially sharp changes in trade policies worldwide. Geo-economics confrontation (sanctions, tariffs, investment screening) ranks #3 for current (2025) risks according to the GRPS and #9 over a two-year horizon. This comes after trade tensions have already been rising steeply since 2017. According to Global Trade Alert, the number of harmful new policy interventions per year rose globally from 600 in 2017 to over 3,000 in 2022, 2023, and 2024.

Technology and Polarization

An estimated two-thirds of the world’s population – 5.5 billion people – is online and over five billion people use social media. The increasing ubiquity of sensors, CCTV cameras, and biometric scanning, among other tools, is further adding to the digital footprint of the average citizen.

In parallel, the world’s computing power is increasing rapidly. This is enabling fast-improving AI and GenAI models to analyze unstructured data more quickly and is reducing the cost of producing content. With Societal polarization ranking #4 in the GRPS two-year ranking, the vulnerabilities associated with citizens’ online activities look set to continue deepening hand in hand with societal and political divisions. Taken as a whole, these developments threaten to fundamentally undermine individuals’ trust in information and institutions.

The World in 2035

The GRPS suggests that the road to 2035 will be challenging to navigate. Respondents are far less optimistic about the outlook for the world over the longer term than the short term. GRPS predicts a turbulent or stormy outlook over the next 10 years. Comparing the two- and 10-year timeframes in more detail reveals a markedly deteriorating global risks landscape. All 33 risks surveyed increase in severity score over the long term compared to the short term, reflecting respondents’ concerns about the heightened frequency or intensity of these risks throughout the 10-year horizon.

Structural Forces

Four spheres – technological, geostrategic, climatic, and demographic – continue to form the backdrop to the global risks that will play out over the next decade and beyond. While all four forces have global ramifications, some, such as climate change, are more multi-directional in their development, which could allow for several potential futures. Similarly, while all represent longer-term shifts to the structural landscape, some have the potential to manifest more quickly due to underlying variables.

Geostrategic shifts, for example, may lead to further divergence between leading powers, while technological acceleration can foster discoveries that transform systems rapidly. As the results of the GRPS show, the Structural forces’ influence on the global risk landscape is well underway.

Pollution at a Crossroads

In 2024, six of the nine “planetary boundaries” for environmental health were crossed, with a seventh boundary in jeopardy. These boundaries contribute to the stability of the world’s life support system, including our economies and societies. Unsustainable patterns of production and consumption are driving climate change, Pollution, and biodiversity loss, referred to by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as the Triple Planetary Crisis.

Pollution is the world’s largest environmental risk factor for disease and premature deaths, and its impacts are unequal, with 92% of pollution-related deaths and the greatest burden of related economic losses occurring in low- and middle-income countries.

Losing Control of Biotech

Adverse outcomes of frontier technologies, including biotech, are one of the risks with the sharpest rise in GRPS ranking between the two-year and 10-year time horizons, by ten positions to #23.

This divergence shows that, while global risks stemming from the field of biotech are not top of mind today, they will become more so within a decade. There are three sets of risks in biotech that need to be watched closely over the coming years: Rising accessibility of bioweapons; negative health impacts as the flipside of efforts to cure or prevent health issues; and the potential for those with access to leading-edge biotech to cross ethical boundaries.

Super-ageing Societies

Countries are termed “super-ageing” or “super-aged” when over 20% of their populations are over 65 years old. Several countries have already exceeded that mark, led by Japan and including some countries in Europe. Many more countries across Europe and Eastern Asia in particular are projected to do so by 2035. Globally, the number of people aged 65 and older is expected to increase by 36%, from 857 million in 2025 to 1.2 billion in 2035.